US Halloween candy sales drop 6.7%

Facing rising chocolate prices and increasing household expenses, American consumers allocating their budgets to essential needs are cutting back on confectionery purchases ahead of the holiday season. According to NielsenIQ data, candy sales in the US fell 6.7% in the 4-week period ending October 17 compared to the same period last year. Sales had also dropped 11.7% in mid-September, reversing the gains achieved at the start of the season over the past 2 years.

Why did Halloween candy sales decline?

This slowdown in demand points to deepening pressure on consumer spending and the challenges facing confectionery manufacturers and retailers. Weak demand despite price discounts on certain products indicates that households are prioritizing basic necessities and that companies' ability to raise prices without sacrificing sales volume is limited. While consumer budgets have narrowed due to rising spending on gasoline, housing, food, and clothing, the average gasoline price across the US reached $4.29 per gallon as of Friday, up approximately 40% year on year. Through mid-October, only small-pack confectioneries recorded sales growth, while large packs experienced sharp declines.

How did fluctuations in cocoa prices reflect on store shelves?

The increase in confectionery prices markedly outpaced overall food consumer price inflation (CPI). According to official data, while sugar and chewing gum prices rose 44% in the 5-year period ending in September, the increase in overall food prices remained at 22.5%. The presence of a 135-piece Mars chocolate variety pack on the shelves of discount retailer Aldi for $19.87 reveals that the amount paid for a 250-piece pack 5 years ago now buys nearly half as much product. Price pressure was driven by cocoa futures hitting a record of $10,710 per ton in January 2025 due to adverse weather conditions in West Africa and speculative trading. Cocoa, which dropped to the $3,241 level in March, rebounded amid fertilizer supply disruptions stemming from the Iran war and El Nino drought forecasts.

The decline in prices was not enough to revive demand either. Despite the average price of non-chocolate Halloween items such as gummy candies and lollipops standing at $6.08 per pound, down 3% year on year in the 9 weeks ending October 17, sales remained stagnant. While it is noted that consumers may postpone purchases closer to the holiday with smaller, more frequent shopping trips, the National Confectioners Association, representing manufacturers such as Mars and Ferrara Candy, maintains its expectation that demand will strengthen in the final days before the holiday. In global markets, the Dollar Index traded at the 101.81 level, up 0.20%.

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