Bernstein Cuts Coinbase Price Target to $250

Flat spot trading volumes in the crypto market and a loss of momentum in the recovery are driving down profit assumptions in brokerage balance sheet models. Ahead of third-quarter financial results, Wall Street research firm Bernstein reduced its 2026 revenue estimate for Coinbase (COIN) by approximately 32% to $5.5 billion. The firm flipped its projection for the company, for which it previously expected a profit of $5.97 per share, into a net loss of $2.60 per share.

Why did the profit expectation for Coinbase turn into a loss?

Following the sharp revision in profit expectations, analysts cut their price target for Coinbase from $330 to $250. While removing the assumption of rising crypto asset prices from its model calculations, the firm nevertheless maintained its positive rating reflecting an outperform expectation for the stock. Spot trading volume is projected to remain flat at $150 billion in the third quarter, with the most significant contribution to revenue growth expected to come from stablecoin operations.

The replacement of traditional spot crypto trading by prediction markets, derivatives, and tokenization was decisive in analysts maintaining their positive stance. According to the report, Coinbase could generate approximately $2 billion in revenue from prediction markets and derivative operations in 2028. The forecast made at the beginning of the year for this item was at $600 million. Hovering just above $162 in Monday trading, Coinbase has been trading down by more than 31% since the start of the year.

What is the new revenue stream for Robinhood and Circle?

As part of its sector report, Bernstein also updated its expectations for Robinhood (HOOD) and USDC issuer Circle. While a price target of $160 was maintained for Robinhood, the stock finished Monday at $93.37. The company is estimated to generate $1.7 billion in revenue from prediction markets and $1.6 billion from crypto trading in 2028.

While quarterly crypto volume on the Robinhood and Bitstamp side is expected to recover to $50 billion, the blockchain network launched in July is calculated to have generated approximately $90 billion in volume and $50 million in commissions in the third quarter through transactions predominantly in memecoins. On the Circle side, the firm raised its price target from $140 to $145 on expectations of Arc token presales and reserve yields. Despite the USDC supply declining from $77 billion to $73 billion, the company's third-quarter revenue is expected to reach $770 million.

This content is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.