Anthropic Nears $1.9 Trillion in Derivatives as It Heads for IPO

While Anthropic was being valued in crypto markets with synthetic derivative contracts reaching $1.87 trillion, it submitted its official initial public offering (IPO) filing to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a Wall Street listing. The developer of artificial intelligence model Claude plans to trade on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker ANT. While Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were authorized to provide the preliminary prospectus, the number of shares to be offered and the exact book-building price have not yet been clarified.

What does the valuation in derivatives markets indicate?

Synthetic perpetual futures contracts trading in cryptocurrency derivatives markets began pricing the company at massive scales before the official initial public offering price was determined. Derivative contracts trading on Binance and Bitget pointed to an implied market capitalization of between $1.86 trillion and $1.88 trillion on October 25 and October 26. In Binance contracts, based on a hypothetical share count of 1 billion units, the price took shape at $1,874. In Defillama data, the pre-IPO valuation estimate was calculated at $1.61 trillion, lagging derivatives pricing by approximately $260 billion.

In which range did expectations on Polymarket concentrate?

Trading volume in first-day closing market capitalization contracts opened on the prediction market Polymarket reached $2.43 million. In transactions on the platform, the valuation range between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion stands out as the highest probability with a 26% likelihood. The $2 trillion to $2.25 trillion range is priced at 21%, while the $1.5 trillion to $1.75 trillion band is priced at 17%. Participants assign only a 4% probability to the chance of the company failing to complete its initial public offering by December 31, 2027.

When compared to the company's past valuation steps, current derivatives pricing reflects a distinct surge. According to Defillama records, the company, which completed its financing round on May 28 at a $965 billion valuation, reached approximately 2 times this level in derivative contracts. On the other hand, the company underwent a legal review process on September 25 as a federal appeals court upheld a Pentagon-sourced supply chain risk decision. During the session when the initial public offering application was submitted, US equity markets also followed a bullish tone; Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.80% to 29,351.00 points, and S&P 500 futures rose 0.67% to 7,711.25 points.

This content is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.